{"id":"MU-20260801","symbol":"MU","date":"2026-08-01","facts":{"symbol":"MU","name":"Micron Technology, Inc.","sector":"Technology","industry":"Semiconductors","country":"United States","summary":"Micron Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products in the United States, Taiwan, Japan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through the Cloud Memory Business Unit; Core Data Center Business Unit; Mobile and Client Business Unit; and Automotive and Embedded Business Unit segments. The company provides memory products, including dynamic random access memory components and modules, CXL-based memory, LPDDR components and modules, graphics memory, high-bandwidth memory, and data center memory products; multichip packages (MCP) comprising embedded multimedia card-based, universal flash storage-based, and NAND-based MCPs; and technology leadership products that include 1y DRAM and G9 NAND technologies. It also offers storage products, such as data center solid-state drives (SSD), client SSD storage, and auto and industrial SSD storage; managed NAND; NAND flash; NOR flash; and memory cards. In addition, the company provides design tools, including FBGA and part decoders; DRAM power calculators; NAND power calculators; simulation models; chipset compatibility guides; serial presence-detection tools; cross-reference tools; UFSparm; SSD firmware; software and drivers; storage executive software; and obsolete part catalogs. It markets its semiconductor memory and storage products under the Micron and Crucial brands. The company serves the data center, PC, graphics, networking, automotive, industrial, and consumer embedded markets, as well as the smartphone and other mobile-device markets. It sells its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; web-based customer direct sales channel; and channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, 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EDGAR (officielle XBRL-filings)","secondary":"Yahoo 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af 4 kandidater: historisk median-FCF (3 år) = 121 mio. USD; TTM-FCF = 7,6 mia. USD; through-cycle FCF-margin (median 8,8 % over 9 år) × nuværende omsætning = 7,9 mia. USD; konsensus-nettoresultat i år × 0,40 (cash-konvertering, cyklikalitetsjusteret) = 33,2 mia. USD","scenarios":{"bear":{"perShare":71.07,"tvShare":0.43,"g1":0.062,"gT":0.02,"wacc":0.113,"fcfMult":0.6,"prob":0.3},"base":{"perShare":207.07,"tvShare":0.54,"g1":0.212,"gT":0.025,"wacc":0.103,"fcfMult":1,"prob":0.45},"bull":{"perShare":408.54,"tvShare":0.63,"g1":0.332,"gT":0.03,"wacc":0.095,"fcfMult":1.1,"prob":0.25}},"probs":{"bear":0.3,"base":0.45,"bull":0.25},"weighted":216.64,"upside":-0.737,"impliedG1":0.623,"sensitivity":{"waccLabels":["-2 pp","-1 pp","10,3 %","+1 pp","+2 pp"],"rows":[{"label":"4,7 mia. USD","cells":[175,150,131,117,106]},{"label":"6,2 mia. USD","cells":[227,194,169,150,135]},{"label":"7,8 mia. USD","cells":[280,238,207,183,164]},{"label":"9,7 mia. USD","cells":[346,293,254,225,201]},{"label":"11,7 mia. USD","cells":[411,348,302,266,238]}]},"assumptions":["FCF-anker: 7,8 mia. USD (median af 4 kandidater: historisk median-FCF (3 år) = 121 mio. USD; TTM-FCF = 7,6 mia. USD; through-cycle FCF-margin (median 8,8 % over 9 år) × nuværende omsætning = 7,9 mia. USD; konsensus-nettoresultat i år × 0,40 (cash-konvertering, cyklikalitetsjusteret) = 33,2 mia. USD).","Anker-kandidaterne spænder >100x — indtjeningsniveauet er ekstremt regimeafhængigt, og fair value-viften skal læses derefter.","Krydstjek: konsensus-nettoresultat i år (82,9 mia. USD) ligger klart over FCF-ankeret — modellen anker bevidst i historisk cash flow, ikke i estimaterne. Er estimaterne holdbare, er fair value for lav.","Startvækst (base) 21,2 %: blandning af konsensus (84,0 %), historisk 3-års CAGR (7,3 %) og universets median (7,6 %), fadet lineært til terminal over 10 år.","WACC (base) 10,3 %: 8 % + betajustering (beta 2.14).","Cyklikalitetsscore 1 (volatil omsætning, 2 tabsår) — scenarieviften er udvidet, og bear-scenariet får 40,0 % FCF-haircut."]},"verdict":{"label":"OVERPRISET IFT. MODELLEN","tone":"bear","body":"Vægtet fair value ligger 73,7 % under kursen. Prisen kræver, at det mest optimistiske scenarie indtræffer. Selskabet er stærkt cyklisk — fair value-viften er bred, og timing dominerer."},"nar":{"bull":["Høj driftsmargin på 80,4 %","Ekstremt høj ROE på 66,6 %","Stærk omsætningsvækst på 345,7 %","Lav forward PE på 5,4x","Stærk nettokontant balance på 19,6 mia. USD"],"bear":["Kursen er allerede høj med en upside på -73,7 % til fair value","Reverse DCF-kursen indregner en startvækst på 62,3 %","Høj cyklikalitetsscore på 1, hvilket indikerer volatil omsætning","Bear-scenariet har en sandsynlighed på 30 %","FCF-haircut på 40,0 % i bear-scenariet"],"risks":["Høj cyklikalitet i omsætning","Afhængighed af få store kunder","Teknologisk forældring og konkurrence","Valutakursrisici"],"catalysts":["Øget efterspørgsel på memory og storage produkter","Nye produkter og teknologier","Forbedring af den globale økonomi"],"oneLiner":"Micron Technology har en stærk forretning med høj driftsmargin og ROE, men kursen er allerede høj og indeholder en betydelig 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signal på dag t's lukkekurs handles til dag t+1's lukkekurs.","costs":"15 bp pr. side (kommission 5 + halvt spread 5 + slippage 5). Følsomhed vist i train/test.","engine":"Identisk semantik som quant/engine.py, som er valideret med look-ahead-guard, omkostnings- og flad-position-tests.","caveats":["Enkelt-aktiv-backtest er betinget af, at selskabet overlevede og forblev børsnoteret (survivorship).","To testede hypoteser på ét aktiv er hypotesetest, ikke en investeringsstrategi — datamining-risiko.","Train/test-splittet (70/30) afslører regler, der kun virkede historisk in-sample.","Udbyttejusterede lukkekurser er en tilnærmelse til total return; intradag-kurser og corporate actions kan afvige.","Ingen point-in-time-universer i frie datakilder — porteføljetests på tværs af aktier ville kræve licenseret data."]}},"engine":"v2"}